In One Chart: Achieving the Demographic Dividend

The experience of China provides a useful policy template for countries with booming populations in south and southeast Asia and in sub-Saharan Africa. The Chinese boom showed that a growing working-age population combined with a declining fertility ratio can result in a large demographic dividend if certain conditions are met. As noted in this recent post, two important drivers of lower fertility are an increase in female literacy and a decline in child mortality. Read more

How Many People Will Live in Africa in 2050 and 2100?

Large declines in fertility will depend on raising female literacy above 80%.

Every few years, the United Nations Population Division releases demographic projections for the entire world and for every country, region and continent. Although the UN’s database is the most used source on demographics, the data is not equally reliable for all countries.

Countries in the developed world conduct regular censuses and produce detailed numbers that are considered reliable. Less developed countries conduct censuses on an irregular basis or are completely unable to conduct them and have instead to rely on demographic sampling. In the poorest countries of the world, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa, censuses are infrequent or nonexistent and even sampling can be irregular and unreliable. Read more

Report: Africa’s Demographic Transition, Dividend or Disaster?

Screen Shot 2015-10-28 at 1.53.28 PMA recent report published jointly by the World Bank and by Agence Française de Développement highlights the challenge of realizing Africa’s promised demographic dividend. The title Africa’s Demographic Transition: Dividend or Disaster? (see footnote 1) sums up the authors’ thesis that the dividend is not an automatic result of falling fertility ratios (TFR).

Instead, falling TFRs open a window of opportunity which can lead to a demographic dividend when governments and the public sector implement the requisite steps to capitalize on this opportunity. Lower child mortality usually leads to falling fertility ratios and improvements in women’s health. But most important among concurrent or subsequent initiatives are investments in education, and the provision of sufficient jobs to a booming working-age population. Read more

Now a Trade Partnership with Africa?

A few days ago, the United States reached agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with eleven other nations (see list in tables below). Here is how the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) describes the TPP on its web page:

President Obama’s trade agenda is dedicated to expanding economic opportunity for American workers, farmers, ranchers, and businesses. That’s why we are negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 21st century trade agreement that will boost U.S. economic growth, support American jobs, and grow Made-in-America exports to some of the most dynamic and fastest growing countries in the world.

Read more

Working Age Population Around the World 1960-2050

>>> This post was updated in May 2021. Visit this page for latest figures.

A fast growing economy usually requires a growing working-age population.  It is informative in this regard to look at the size of the working-age population (wap) for different regions and countries of the world.

Screen Shot 2015-09-25 at 1.05.48 PM

This data, compiled from the UN’s World Population Prospects – the 2015 Revision, tells us the following: Read more

Providing Electricity to Africa by 2050

How many Africans will have access to electricity by 2050?

According to the World Bank’s latest figures, 64.6% of the population of sub-Saharan Africa lacked access to electricity in 2012, or a total of 572 million people. Across the world, 1.09 billion have no access to electricity. So, sub-Saharan Africa accounts for more than half the total.

Given the expected boom in the African population and the likely increase in access, the demand for electricity infrastructure is going to explode between now and 2050. On UN estimates (medium variant), the sub-Saharan population will jump from 886 million in 2012 to 2.1 billion in 2050. Assuming that each country’s current access rate remains the same, 381 million additional people will have access to electricity and 855 million additional people will not. Read more

Demography, the Global Emergency

It is not an exaggeration to say that world demographics are entering uncharted territory. For the first time in a very long time, perhaps the first time ever, the dependency ratios (loosely, the ratio of dependents to workers) of all rich nations and of several emerging markets have started rising and will continue to rise for several decades.

This alone would be enough of a challenge for the world economy. But making things more complicated, it is taking place at the same time as the other big demographic transition of our age, the great population boom in some of the poorest nations of the world. Read more

Demography Charts – 2

9 December 2014

See also Demography Charts – 1

Below are lists of largest country populations in 1950, 2015 and 2050, assuming the UN’s medium-variant projections. Key takeaways:

  • Lower growth for world population in upcoming decades as total fertility ratios (TFR = children per woman) decline in Africa and Asia.
  • Four European countries were in the top 10 in 1950. Only one (Russia) remains in 2015 and none in 2050.
  • US population drops from 6.3% of world in 1950, to 4.4% in 2015, to 4.2% in 2050.
  • Huge increase in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2015 to 2050, despite an expected decline in TFR.

Top 10 populations in 1950:

Population (millions) 1950
WORLD 2526
Sub-Saharan Africa 179
China 544
India 376
United States 158
Russia 103
Japan 82
Indonesia 73
Germany 70
Brazil 54
United Kingdom 51
Italy 46

 

Top 10 populations in 2015:

Population (millions) 2015
WORLD 7325
Sub-Saharan Africa 949
China 1401
India 1282
United States 325
Indonesia 256
Brazil 204
Pakistan 188
Nigeria 184
Bangladesh 160
Russia 142
Japan 127

 

Top 10 populations in 2050:

Population (millions) 2050
WORLD 9551
Sub-Saharan Africa 2074
India 1620
China 1385
Nigeria 440
United States 401
Indonesia 321
Pakistan 271
Brazil 231
Bangladesh 202
Ethiopia 186
Philippines 157

Finally, here is a chart of Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa as percent of total world population.

EuropeSubSaharan