Category Archives: Analysis and Opinion

How Many People Will Live in Africa in 2050 and 2100?

Large declines in fertility will depend on raising female literacy above 80%. Every few years, the United Nations Population Division releases demographic projections for the entire world and for every country, region and continent. Although the UN’s database is the most used source on demographics, … Continue reading

Posted in Africa, Analysis and Opinion, Asia, China, Demography, Economy, Education, Emerging Markets, Family Planning, India, Investment, Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, Sub-Saharan, Uganda, United Nations, Urbanization, World Bank

Demography, the Global Emergency

It is not an exaggeration to say that world demographics are entering uncharted territory. For the first time in a very long time, perhaps the first time ever, the dependency ratios (loosely, the ratio of dependents to workers) of all … Continue reading

Posted in Africa, Analysis and Opinion, Bangladesh, Demography, Dependency Ratio, Economy, Emerging Markets, Europe, European Union, Germany, Immigration, India, Nigeria, Philippines, Sub-Saharan

On Greece Demographics

Of all major regions of the world, Europe has the most challenging demographics, combining a stagnant population and a rising dependency ratio. But within Europe, five countries have worse demographics than the European average: Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece.

Posted in Analysis and Opinion, Demography, Dependency Ratio, Europe, European Union, Greece

US GDP: Is 4% Growth Achievable?

The Wall Street Journal and The Financial Times say no. While announcing his presidential campaign Monday, Jeb Bush said: There is not a reason in the world why we cannot grow at a rate of 4% a year. And that … Continue reading

Posted in 2016 Candidates, Analysis and Opinion, Demography, Dependency Ratio, Economy, Immigration, United States, US Economy

New Home Sales: Better but Still Historically Weak

New home sales for February were stronger than expected, at an annualized pace of 539,000 units vs. 465,000 expected. This is good news because it is the highest number since early 2008. However, the chart below shows that we are still … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis and Opinion, Demography, Economy, Housing, United States, US Economy | 2 Comments

Ratio of Gold to S&P 500

(Chart updated on 30 November 2015 with ratio at 0.51) The ratio of the price of gold to the S&P 500 shows two notable extremes that are clearly visible in the log-scale chart below. The first was a reading of 6.1 in … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis and Opinion, Economy, Gold, Inflation, Investment, Stock Market, United States

The Case for Agricultural ETFs: A Conversation with Sal Gilbertie

“It is really important to have ags in your portfolio. Most people have gold and most people have oil. The fact that they don’t have ags is actually quite a mystery.”    Sal Gilbertie, President of Teucrium Funds. TO HEAR THE … Continue reading

Posted in Africa, Agriculture, Analysis and Opinion, Asia, Commodities, Demography, Economy, Emerging Markets, Food, Gold, Hunger, India, Podcast, Sub-Saharan

The BRIC and I

The growth prospects of Brazil, Russia and China are dimming, while those of India are flaring. If one is a lonely number, then ‘I’ could be a lonely letter, at least when it comes to the ‘I’ of the BRIC countries. … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis and Opinion, Brazil, China, Demography, Dependency Ratio, Economy, Europe, European Union, India, Japan, Russia, United States

When Will Oil Bottom?

Not until the discount of WTI to Brent disappears. If one of Saudi Arabia’s objectives is to curtail American shale oil production, then it bears to reason that this objective will not be attained until Brent and WTI trade at parity … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis and Opinion, Economy, Investment, Oil, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, United States, US Economy

Demography Charts – 2

9 December 2014 See also Demography Charts – 1 Below are lists of largest country populations in 1950, 2015 and 2050, assuming the UN’s medium-variant projections. Key takeaways: Lower growth for world population in upcoming decades as total fertility ratios … Continue reading

Posted in Africa, Analysis and Opinion, China, Demography, Economy, Emerging Markets, India, Nigeria, Sub-Saharan, United States, US Economy