The country has some, but not all, the ingredients needed for a demographic dividend.
A few days ago, President Trump posted the following in defense of Nigerian Christians:
They’re killing record numbers of Christians in Nigeria. They’re killing the Christians and killing them in very large numbers. We’re not going to allow that to happen… If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians!
While it is true that Christians have been targeted by Jihadis in Nigeria, Muslims have also been targeted in large numbers. Groups like Boko Haram, ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province) and others oppose all forms of secularism, westernization, democracy and modernity. They seek to “purify” Nigeria by eliminating Christianity and non-Islamic practices, and by installing an Islamic regime. Boko is from the English word book, and Haram means forbidden in Arabic. So, Boko Haram means “western education is forbidden”, in particular as it applies to girls.
As shown on the map, Nigeria is both Christian and Muslim over a land area that is the size of California, Nevada and Utah combined. Approximately 46% of the population are Christian, including catholics and protestants, who tend to live in southern and coastal provinces. The other 54% are mostly Sunni Muslims who tend to live in the center and north, including in the provinces that are closest to Niger and Chad, two Muslim countries.
Trump’s implied idea that the US can be the protector of Christians in other countries is unprecedented for a US president. It is unlikely to sit comfortably with the other priorities of US foreign policy. It is also unlikely that Congress would approve military interventions or punitive missions of this kind. Christians are persecuted or face severe restrictions in a large number of countries, including most Muslim countries, North Korea and China. Here is a map of Islamist groups in Africa as of 2022, from the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI). It would be impossible to subdue all of them by force of arms.
That said, it is good that the President is paying some attention to Africa, because Africa will be the continent with the highest population growth for decades to come. Here is a chart showing Nigeria’s total population and its population aged 15 to 64. Nigeria’s population is the largest in Africa and it will surpass that of the US by 2040. Most critical is the fact that its working-age population (aged 15-64) will double by 2075.
The total fertility rate (TFR) of Nigeria is today 4.3 children per woman. This chart derived from the UN’s medium variant assumes that the TFR will fall to 2.1 by 2075. Should it instead remain at a higher level, the population growth will be even faster than is shown here.
If the TFR declines as envisioned by the UN, there will be in theory a historic opportunity for Nigeria to realize a demographic dividend and to improve its economic conditions. A demographic dividend occurs when the number of dependents to workers, the dependency ratio (DR), declines in a given country. The DRs of Nigeria and of sub-Saharan Africa are shown in the chart below. The UN medium variant expects them to fall from the high 70s (a ratio of 0.7) to about 0.5. I have argued elsewhere that China’s boom in 1990-2010 was greatly assisted by the fact that its dependency ratio fell by half. See How China Realized a Demographic Dividend. But I have also argued that many African countries will not be ready when the window of opportunity for a demographic dividend opens up. See Demographic Dividend: Which Countries are Next?
In Demographics, The Global Emergency, I identified the emergency as demographics that were too weak in rich countries and too strong in poor countries. I speculated that both rich and poor could solve their problems by working together.
The opportunity, the solution to the global emergency, is to help these younger countries improve their economies by providing them with capital and helping them strengthen their institutions. To the symbiotic solution, developed nations bring technology, capital and institutional expertise. Emerging nations bring strong demographics and a growing labor force. Working together would over time:
- create large new demand markets for Western products at a time when domestic demand is weakening.
- provide food, shelter, health care and jobs to growing populations in sub-Saharan Africa and other countries.
- strengthen institutions, facilitate capital formation and investments, and increase transparency in governance in emerging markets.
- mitigate disorganized migration, and lower the risk of instability.
This was written in 2015. The world has moved in another direction in the past ten years, with more confrontation than cooperation.
