Category Archives: Oil

Capitalism Did Not Win the Cold War

This article first appeared at Foreign Affairs. Why cronyism was the real victor. When the Soviet Union collapsed 26 years ago, it was generally agreed that the West had won the Cold War. This was affirmed by the prosperity and … Continue reading

Posted in Africa, Brazil, BRIC countries, Communism, Corruption, Cronyism, Economy, Emerging Markets, Foreign Affairs, Hedge Funds, New York, Offshore, Oil, Real Estate, Russia, Society, United States, US Economy | Leave a comment

The Futility of Annual Top 10 Predictions

In every recent year, a black swan event has made top 10 lists appear quaintly naive and unimaginative. Our list is probably no better. This time of year, top 10 predictions are all the rage. These lists can be interesting and entertaining but how useful are … Continue reading

Posted in China, Economy, Emerging Markets, India, Iran, Oil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Society, Terrorism, United States | Leave a comment

The Relationship Between Fertility and National Income

We all heard that “demography is destiny”. But how many of us truly believe it? If demography was destiny, the world would look very different today. The two demographic giants China and India would be uncontested economic and military powers. The United … Continue reading

Posted in Africa, China, Communism, Demography, Economy, Education, Health Care, India, Natural Resources, Oil, Society, Sub-Saharan | 2 Comments

Rise of the Rest: A Vision Deferred

Changing demographics and the commodities crash have slowed down the development of poorer countries. Perhaps it all started with a turn in China’s demographics. Demand growth for commodities has declined sharply from recent years and has resulted in a crash of global prices. Copper is … Continue reading

Posted in Brazil, BRIC countries, China, Churchill, Commodities, Demography, Economy, Education, Emerging Markets, India, Investment, Kenya, Mexico, Natural Resources, Nigeria, Oil, Pakistan, Philippines, Russia, Society, Tanzania | 1 Comment

When Will Oil Bottom?

Not until the discount of WTI to Brent disappears. If one of Saudi Arabia’s objectives is to curtail American shale oil production, then it bears to reason that this objective will not be attained until Brent and WTI trade at parity … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis and Opinion, Economy, Investment, Oil, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, United States, US Economy

Oil Quake 2014

2 December 2014 The consequences of a collapsing oil price will be deep and wide ranging. Brent oil has crashed from $115 per barrel in mid June to around $70 today, and WTI from $107 to $66. Here are the likely ramifications, the obvious and … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis and Opinion, Economy, Emerging Markets, Oil, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, United States, US Economy

It’s the Demography, Stupid

11 November 2014 (See also the post Demography Charts – 1) America’s anemic recovery can be explained by its slowing demographics. Politicians tend to overstate the positive impact of their policies on the economy and to also exaggerate the negative impact … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis and Opinion, Apple, Demography, Dependency Ratio, Economy, Europe, Google, Japan, Nokia, Oil, United States, US Economy, Wall Street

Oil Spread: Fourth Decline in Six Months

Since our last post, and much as predicted by three previous declines in the last six months, the WTI-Brent has collapsed again from $9 to $4.50. There is increasing talk of removing the ban on US oil exports. In particular, … Continue reading

Posted in Oil, US Congress, US Economy

Oil Price: WTI – Brent Spread Scaling $9 Again

This is the fourth time in the last six months that the WTI – Brent spread has exceeded $9 per barrel. In the previous three instances, the spread then quickly narrowed to $4, $5.50 and $3. The spread opened up … Continue reading

Posted in Oil, US Economy