France: The Demographic Reckoning

Retirement demographics and immigration demographics are France’s two intractable challenges in this crisis.

There are many types of participants in the current French protests and riots: students, teachers, recent migrants, children of long-ago immigrants, members of the left and ultra-left, thugs and looters, populists and anti-elites etc. Telling the story through the motives of these protagonists is perfectly legitimate, even if they are not all working from the same playbook.

But there is another narrative overlaying all of these sub-plots, a backdrop that touches all of them and that brought the protests to a head. And that is the evolution of French demographics over the last half century. As these things go, the crisis blew up slowly, then suddenly.

Mass protests are frequent in France for cultural and historical reasons. That is, after all, the country that beheaded its king, and whose national motto includes the word Egalité. In the past ten years, there have been at least ten sizable waves of protests. To name only a few: in 2017, there was protest against labor rule changes; in 2018, protest by rail workers; in 2018-19, the Gilets Jaunes (yellow vests) against a new fuel tax; in 2019, climate-related protests; in 2019-20 and again in 2023, massive protests against pension reform; in 2025, protest against budget austerity; and now, protests for better education, alongside riots by troublemakers and “casseurs.”

Eugène Delacroix’s La Liberté guidant le peuple (Liberty leading the people), 1830.

The interesting thing, and topic of this post, is that the current student protests and the protests against pension reform of a few years ago run counter each other. In other words, the demands from today’s protesters are incompatible with the demands from protesters of years past.

Let me explain.

One of the key demands from today’s student protesters is an increase in funding for public education. But France is already spending on education at a rate that exceeds the OECD average, as shown in this chart. Only the Nordic countries, Belgium, Israel and the U.K. spend more, as a percent of GDP.

So, the real problem may not be the level of expenditures, but where the money is spent. The breakdown is shown in the next chart below. For every 100 euros spent by the French state on a teacher, that teacher’s take-home pay is only 38.6 euros, or about the same as the 38.4 euros pension contribution generated by that teacher.

To clarify, since the pension system is pay-as-you-go, this pension contribution is not set aside for the teacher in question; it is instead a contribution to the pension pool that is paid in the same year to already-retired teachers. One could say that this is an accounting feature and that pensions to retired teachers would be paid at the same level irrespective of the existence of this one current teacher. Nonetheless, the chart highlights the fact that the State is spending as much on retired teachers, or indeed more when you add all the components, as it is on current ones.

I am not trying to argue that the annual pension received by a retired teacher is too generous or not generous enough. That debate is beyond the scope of this post. My point instead is that a very large share of the education budget is allocated to pensions. There is, as a result, a crowding-out of the wages that are available to pay current teachers.

RETIREMENT DEMOGRAPHICS

The stress imposed by pension obligations comes from the usual two sources of demographic stress on any state’s finances nowadays, namely a lower supply of euros on one side and a higher demand for euros on the other side:

  • Supply of euros: There are in France (and in all Western economies) fewer workers per retiree because birth rates have collapsed since the end of the baby boom in the mid 1960s, as shown below with France’s total fertility rate (TFR). In 1960, the TFR was an average of 2.8 children per woman. Subsequently, the introduction of the contraceptive pill in 1967, the two oil crises of 1973 and 1979 and the legalization of abortion in 1975 all contributed to bring down the fertility rate to 1.8. Since then, it has been as high as 2.0 and as low as 1.6 where it stands today. Fewer children in the past fifty years means fewer workers today who are paying in the pay-as-you-go pension system, and therefore fewer euros.
  • Demand for euros: The retirement of baby boomers has created more demand for pensions. There are two factors in this equation: 1) the increased life expectancy of retirees, shown in the next chart, and 2) the sheer increase in the number of retirees, shown in the second chart below.

A retiree aged 65 in 1960 had about 14 more years of life ahead of him. In 1990, he had 18 more years. And today, he has 21 more years. Compared to 1960, today’s French retiree will cost the State 50% more euros (in real terms), because he will live 50% longer, all other things being equal.

This increase represents only the cost per retiree, but because there are far more retirees now than in 1960 (next chart), the pension burden on the State has exploded much higher. In 1960, there were 5 million French citizens aged 65 or older. In 2026, there are 15 million, going on 18 million by 2050.

So, the actual forward burden on the State is a lot more than a 50% increase since 1960. In terms of man-years of future obligations, annual pensions will have to support a doubling or tripling of annual payments in the next twenty-five years.

Another way to look at the supply-demand situation is the old-age dependency ratio, which is the ratio of people aged more than 64 to people aged 20 to 64 (x100 on the y-axis). It is the ratio of retirees to working people. In 1960, there were 2 retirees for every ten workers. Today, there are over 4 retirees for every 10 workers. The old-age dependency ratio has more than doubled since 1960 and will have nearly tripled by 2050.

IMMIGRATION DEMOGRAPHICS

There is another demographic component to this story. During the Trente Glorieuses, the ‘glorious thirty’ years of 1945-1975, France imported a large number of low-skilled workers because it needed to staff its factories while the economy was booming and French production was thriving. In recent years, France has again imported a large number of low-skilled workers, mostly for humanitarian reasons.

But the French economy is no longer growing at a fast rate and cannot as easily absorb and integrate the newcomers. It is beset by many problems including 1) a euro currency that is arguably too high for its industry, 2) Chinese imports that are hollowing out local manufacturing, 3) automation that requires fewer workers, and last but not least 4) a budgetary crisis that has driven up sovereign yields to their highest levels since 2002.

The protests come at a juncture when France has little maneuvering room. The fiscally conservative say that the country cannot make offers to the protesters without further damaging its finances and driving up government yields even higher, and that it cannot tax the wealthy without seeing more of them leave for friendlier jurisdictions. But the left says that both of these things should be done in order to redress rampant inequality, and that the sovereign debt can even be cancelled, or defaulted on.

This is a high stakes situation, brought about slowly at first, and then suddenly, by France’s demographic evolution in the past fifty years. For a long time, the State has lived beyond its means, as have many other rich countries (the U.S. included), and has borrowed from the future to meet the shortfall. But this configuration no longer works. At one end, there is a surplus of unneeded low-skilled workers, at the other, a rising numbers of pensioners. In the middle, the working-age population is declining in numbers (chart) and is employed in declining industries. To top it all, the government’s debt is growing to dangerous proportions.

SOLUTIONS

There are therefore three difficult challenges: 1) addressing the retirement equation and the balance between expenditures on the young vs old, 2) adopting a selective smart immigration approach to ensure integration and assimilation, and 3) re-energizing economic prospects for the working-age middle.

There are no easy fixes. France and most developed economies will likely have to raise their retirement age toward 70, except for those who are in manual labor jobs or who have physical impairments. The State will have to come up with new solutions to address the immigration issue. And France will need to adopt policies that are friendlier to wealth creators, entrepreneurs and investors.

P.S. The INSEE (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques), France’s official statistics agency, expects the size of the working-age population to remain flat rather than decline because of small increases in the retirement age.

Lebanon in Crisis, with Joe Issa El Khoury

“Historically, Lebanon prospered as a result of inflows of people and funds – people who came to take refuge in Lebanon and also funds. If we look at the post World War 2 period when modern Lebanon became independent and also at previous periods that Lebanon went through – and I mean over the past 100 or 200 years – one thing that was common to all these eras is its liberal economic system that was adopted by all who lived on this land. The constant was the liberal economic system.”____ Joe Issa El Khoury

Sami J. Karam speaks with Joe Issa El Khoury, a Beirut-based financier, about the tragic events that have unfolded in Lebanon since 2019. A sharp fall in the currency, a banking freeze, a political crisis, hyperinflation, and widespread street protests made 2019 a difficult year. But these events were then compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic and the explosion in the port of Beirut in 2020.

Issa El Khoury explains the sequence of events that led to the present, and offers a possible way forward.

Topics include:

  • 0:00 Introduction of Joe Issa El Khoury
  • 2:25 What is it like right now on the ground in Beirut?
  • 8:33 Why did Lebanon have a golden period in 1945-75; why was it later so prone to crisis?
  • 17:40 The Rafik Hariri era and the return of growth 1990-2005
  • 20:00 What explains the weakness of the Lebanese state: geography and demographics
  • 26:30 Lebanon’s diversity as a source of wealth; Example of Lebanese cuisine
  • 30:40 Crossing the line from a laissez-faire economy to a crony economy
  • 35:05 The real estate boom of 2007-11
  • 36:55 The impact of the Syrian civil war
  • 39:10 Crowding out the private sector
  • 44:10 The proximate factors that led to the meltdown
  • 46:15 The current condition of the banking sector; Role of the Central Bank
  • 51:00 Will depositors suffer a haircut? The Lazard and other plans
  • 54:45 Talk of privatization of state assets
  • 59:45 Political patronage in the public sector
  • 1:01:50 “All roads lead to Washington DC and the acronym IMF”
  • 1:05:20 Political reform and the role of the diaspora

TO HEAR THE PODCAST, CLICK HERE OR ON THE TIMELINE BELOW:

Florida in the Election

A French version of this article appears in L’Express.

Former mayor Mike Bloomberg has announced that he would spend as much as $100 million of his own money to help Vice-President Biden prevail in Florida on Election Day. This underscores once again the importance of Florida in this and every presidential contest.

Florida has a good track record of picking the winner in a presidential election. With the messy 2000 contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore, the state gained prominence as the ultimate prize and must-win battleground. To be sure, it is not a perfect track record, given that Florida favored George H. W. Bush in 1992 and Richard Nixon in 1960 over winners Bill Clinton and John Kennedy. If you go to earlier times, you also find that Floridians misfired with John Davis and James Cox in 1924 and 1920, two unknowns today except among aficionados of electoral history. But in sum, four misses out of 25 elections over a century can indeed be called a strong track record.

The stakes are high in 2020 given the state’s 29 Electoral College votes and the tightness of the race according to the polls. Vice President Biden is now nominally ahead by 1 to 3%, an insignificant gap that can easily close or widen in the remaining days of the campaign, depending on a slew of factors, not least the performance of each candidate in the upcoming debates.

Read more →

Talking About Cities, with Aaron Renn

“You go to some of these places [Midwestern cities], the question they ask when they meet you is ‘where did you go to high school’?… The fact that where you went to high school is a social marker places you in a community. You go to Washington DC and nobody cares where you went to high school… In New York, they ask ‘where are you from?’ because it is assumed that you are not from here. Some of these places in the Midwest… need more outsiders to come in because outsiders are the natural constituency of the new.” _____Aaron Renn

AaronRennAaron Renn, a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, speaks to Sami J. Karam about US cities. What makes the large coastal cities so successful? What are the prospects for mid-sized and smaller cities in the Rust Belt? What is the current state of play for mass transit? What role does immigration play in the development of cities?

Among the cities discussed, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, Washington DC, Seattle, Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Francisco, Charlotte, Minneapolis-St Paul, Nashville, Columbus, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, St Louis, Cleveland, Detroit, Madison, Iowa City, Rochester (MN), Singapore, Paris.

Topics include:

  • 0:00 Introduction of Aaron Renn
  • 1:15 What makes the large coastal cities so successful at creating wealth?
  • 8:30 Can a large city become dominant in a new sector? (e.g., New York in tech)
  • 13:00 How would you categorize non-coastal cities in terms of their prospects?
  • 16:30 Why some cities are struggling while others are restructuring successfully
  • 20:55 Will some smaller cities turn into ghost towns within twenty years?
  • 26:35 What is going on with Detroit’s recovery?
  • 30:40 The role of new immigrants in the development of a city
  • 36:50 Immigration policy in Canada and Australia compared to the US and UK
  • 43:50 What is the future for mass transit?
  • 48:00 The lack of city to city benchmarking in infrastructure costing and execution
  • 53:40 Is there anything going on in high-speed rail, other than in California?
  • 59:40 The decline of trust in institutions and the problem of cronyism.

TO HEAR THE PODCAST, CLICK HERE OR ON THE TIMELINE BELOW:

The Cure for Inequality is More Laissez-Faire

That means less cronyism and more competition.

“Inequality is not necessarily bad in itself: the key question is to decide whether it is justified.”____ Thomas Piketty in Capital in the Twenty-First Century.

Piketty’s words read like a premise that is only half right, followed by a problematic corollary. Reasonable people will agree that some inequality is not only “not necessarily bad” but also very desirable and very necessary in order to stimulate the economy’s entrepreneurial and innovative spirits. Further, if some inequality is desirable, how much is enough and how much is too much? And who gets to decide?

Clearly, there will never be a consensus on this. And it is not a satisfactory solution that the majority party would decide for the next four or eight or twelve years. The back and forth dominance of one party over the other would mean that any measures enacted to combat extreme inequality would at best amount to a feeble and erratic effort instead of a long-term cure, while the underlying problem gets larger with every electoral cycle.

To make things worse, both of the major parties in the United States are mistaken to ascribe inequality to an excess of capitalism. Democrats claim that growing inequality is the result of unbridled ‘wild west’ capitalism. And Republicans argue that it is a mostly acceptable byproduct of capitalism. But extreme inequality is in fact caused by insufficient competition. Given  that competition is the lifeblood of capitalism, it follows that inequality is the result, not of capitalism, but of a lack of capitalism.

Read more →

Northern Ambition

This post was first published in 2018 on Aaron Renn’s home page urbanophile.com.

Young and foreign in the Twin Cities circa 1987.

“For how much longer will you go by Sami instead of Sam or Samuel?… Because after a certain age, a Robby, for example, would revert to a more grown-up name like Bob or Rob or Robert”, I was once asked and informed by a senior colleague in Minneapolis. My answer that Sami was, is a real first name, albeit not necessarily one that I favored over its variants, did not seem to satisfy him.

A decade later, when I started working on Wall Street and heard a similar comment, I found that this reaction to ‘Sami’ was not unique to the midwest or to the less diverse non-coastal US but that it was instead emblematic of cultures that were somewhat insular. Minneapolis did feel insular when I lived there as a young immigrant in 1986-88.

When Aaron Renn recently suggested that I write about my experience there, I was not sure that I could do a fair job of it. Would I use a chronology, as in a fragment of biography? Would I showcase the 1987 Twins triumph at home in game 7 of the World Series? How would I insert my fast weekend escapes to New York or L.A. on discounted fares that I bought in bulk from People Express ($45 to New York!)? And my slow other weekends spent alone writing computer code in the office because I had nothing better to do?

When undecided, use data! So in the end, I settled on five main data themes. Minneapolis in 1986 was 1) cold, 2) flat, 3) remote, 4) rich, and 5) white. The first four are still true today.

But first a few general comments.

Minneapolis was and is a great place in many ways. The people around me were unfailingly kind. I liked the city’s well-designed infrastructure and amenities and its perennial ambition to turn itself into something bigger and better. “It wants desperately to be New York”, a Minnesotan college friend had told me before I moved there.

But after living there for two years, I was dubious. I thought that Minneapolis, though known as the ‘Minneapple’, was very happy just being Minneapolis. Further, if I want to be lucid, these same unfailingly kind people did not seem all that interested in me. I was an oddity in a place that seemed perfectly content without too many oddities.

As to Minneapolis becoming bigger and better, the most visible of the city’s major improvements, for example Cesar Pelli’s stunning Norwest (now Wells Fargo) Center then under construction, seemed destined to remain off bounds for the likes of me. I projected, rightly or wrongly, that were I to stay, it would take me a very long time to penetrate the higher circles of local industry.

Norwest (now Wells Fargo) Center under construction in 1987. Photo by the author.

On the whole, my time in Minneapolis was comfortable but not easy. Although I had already lived in many places away from home, I felt in this case an unfamiliar isolation that was heightened by the cold winters and by the city’s remote location deep into the northern plains.

Of little assistance to my outlook was the fact that I was reading, in the dead of winter, Roland Huntsford’s The Last Place on Earth, a chronicle of the 1911 two-team race to reach the South Pole. Would I sail through and emerge victorious like Amundsen? Or would I endure an exhausting slog only to then freeze to death like Scott? Neither, of course, though my February psychology was trending to Scott.

COLD

How bad is the weather in Minneapolis? Regarding the temperature (see first table below), it is as cold as Anchorage in winter, but no worse than Chicago in spring, and similar to New York and Denver in the summer and fall. On the whole, I found it quite bearable, and even enjoyable, except for the most extreme days of winter.

There are other weather factors beside temperature. For one, Minneapolis has an unusually high number of completely cloudless days (next table below). “It is too cold for the humidity to hold up in the air”, my recruiter had deadpanned during the first interview.

Minneapolis-St Paul (MSP) has more clear days than Chicago and more total sunny hours than New York, and far more than Seattle. Its annual snowfall is similar to Denver’s but Denver is even sunnier. Surprisingly, Denver has more clear days than Miami and as many sunny hours.

So in sum, Minneapolis is abysmally cold and snowy in winter. But overall, it is frequently sunny even in winter. If you prefer sunny cold days to tepid wet grey ones, you could argue that the weather in Minneapolis is in fact better than in Seattle. The temperatures in Seattle are less extreme and there is little snow. But the sky is frequently overcast and releases rain in forty more days every year than in Minneapolis.

FLAT

Minnesota has little variation in its land elevations and is the fifth flattest state in the US. Standing at any high point in the city, say on the tenth floor of a building, the view is unobstructed by natural topography in all directions. Except on hazy or foggy days, the towers of downtown are clearly visible from far away. Perhaps it was this long open vista that inspired Minnesota native Sinclair Lewis in the opening lines of Babbitt:

“The towers of Zenith aspired above the morning mist; austere towers of steel and cement and limestone, sturdy as cliffs and delicate as silver rods. They were neither citadels nor churches, but frankly and beautifully office-buildings.”

In winter, the chill wind can do its work unbothered by natural obstacles and its steady sweep undulates drifts of snow from one side of the road to the other (‘snow snakes’, per one of my local friends).

I once took a drive north to Duluth and pressed on along the north shore of Lake Superior. We encountered few hills until we reached the Sawtooth range of low mountains along the lake.

REMOTE

In my view, the most unique geographic feature of Minneapolis is not its weather, but the combination of its weather and its remoteness (table below). It is very far from any other sizable city. Its own metro population has 3.6 million today, up from less than 2.5 million when I lived there. But the closest large city is Chicago, 409 miles away. That is the same distance as Boston to Baltimore, and 30 miles more than San Francisco to Los Angeles. Unlike on those trips however, there is little to break the monotony of a day-long trek through rural Wisconsin, except for a quick bypass of Madison and perhaps a lunch break at Wisconsin Dells.

On my first long drive to metro Minneapolis-St Paul (the Twin Cities), coming from Indiana, I was thrilled at dusk to finally reach Eau Claire because that meant that I only had… 90 miles to go.

Minneapolis is even more isolated to its west. Driving in that direction, the first city of over one million inhabitants is Seattle, 1,656 miles away. I never ventured in that direction. But I did head to Kansas City for New Year’s eve 1988. That was a mere 436 miles of driving through the frozen grey-brown fields of southern Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri. The city of Des Moines, helpfully located half way, was the only pretext to take a break.

The next large cities beyond Kansas City were Denver and Dallas-Fort Worth, both at over 900 miles from Minneapolis. But I never went there by road.

The brave that push northward from MSP into Canada will not encounter a sizable (say greater than 500,000) concentration of humans until Winnipeg in Manitoba, 460 miles away.

I wonder if MSP’s remoteness made it more insular back then. Today, people fly more easily and everything seems closer. But in 1986-88, I met some people in their 50s or 60s who had never left the state. In some cases, they were proud of it and intent on keeping it so until the end. There was no need to venture anywhere, other than for curiosity or a love of travel, especially when the local economy was doing so well.

RICH

Minneapolis-St Paul was quite content with its economy. Back then, it boasted higher median household income (MHI) than the US average. Today too, the MHI in Hennepin, Dakota, Ramsey, Anoka and Washington counties (the metro Minneapolis-St Paul area) is significantly higher than the national average (table below), roughly in line with that of Manhattan. And living expenses are much lower than in Manhattan.

Minnesota is home to corporate giants Cargill (agriculture, trading), Carlson (travel), United Health (health care), Target and Best Buy (retail) and others.

I saw first hand and was inspired by the Minnesota work ethic that seemed to strike just the right balance between personal ambition and team work. I was employed by an architecture-engineering design firm that had at the time its headquarters in Minneapolis and a small satellite office in Milwaukee. I had no doubt that it would grow smartly. Today it has eight offices coast to coast.

WHITE

When I lived there, Minneapolis’s ethnic makeup was over 80% white. Today, this percentage has dropped to the mid 60s. I am guessing that the new diversity has changed the character of the city and opened up new cultural vistas.

Someone like me would probably find it easier to integrate today than I did in the late 1980s and may more readily decide to settle in Minnesota for the long term. To be sure, it is still brutally cold. It is also still very far, but it may feel closer today thanks to easier travel and social media. The locals are probably more interested in the foreign-born today because there are more of them around. And they bring with them something new and interesting.

My guess overall is that Minneapolis is a much better place for an outsider today than thirty years ago, though still not as socially navigable as the traditionally more universal cities on either coast. Nonetheless, as I alluded above about Wall Street, coastal America seems more inclusive overall but it still comprises smaller sub-cultures that can be just as exclusionary as some midwestern cities. The outer walls are gone but smaller inner citadels remain off limits.

In 1986, as a Mediterranean in the land of the Scandinavian and German-American, I sought warmer personal connections. As luck would have it, baseball rescued me in the end. When the Twins made it to the 1987 World Series, a groundswell of camaraderie and good cheer spread through my entourage, one that was broad and generous enough to see me invited to several homes where I watched the games and liberally high-fived everybody. There was no going back to formality after that.

Forever etched in my memory is a night drive into downtown on the last day of the World Series. Every window of every building was lit up in tribute to the Twins victory and the entire city was glowing like a celebratory thank you to the heavens.

Cronyism and its Scapegoats

Cronyism destroys trust and assigns the blame to scapegoats of its own creation.

Only a fiercely committed left or right-winger would fail to recognize that there is today a social and political divide that does not easily fit within the traditional mold of left vs. right. If, loosely speaking, the left leans socialist and the right leans capitalist, there is a third branch, cronyism, that is characterized by the rising power and wealth of rent-seeking industries and individuals. In the past, this branch was dominant mainly in poorer countries with weaker institutions. But today it has also gained significant strength in a number of developed countries, including the United States.

In fact, if the Republican Party has been hijacked by Trumpism, as some allege, then we could say that capitalism has been similarly hijacked by cronyism. In our view, this parallel is nearly seamless, given that the GOP is traditionally pro-capitalism – in words if not always in deeds – and that the incumbent administration is largely populated with captains of rent-seeking industries. Read more →

Immigration and Trust

Do we only really trust people who are like us? And if so, is that a mistake?

Distrust of the unfamiliar and the foreign is a natural survival mechanism for most species, including the human species. But, if empirical evidence is worth anything, a reflexive distrust of the foreigner cannot be said to be equally benign. Distrust sows fear. And fear plays in the hands of demagogues and can turn into a contagious pathology with numerous undesirable consequences.

One of these consequences is an excess of caution. Safety is important but an obsession with safety is counterproductive. Locking your door at night is prudent, but fear of ever leaving your house can lead to atrophy and other physical and mental degradations. As in most things, a fine calibration between the desire for safety and the need to accept minimal risks is likely to yield the best outcome. Read more →

Africa: 800 Million Jobs Needed

African economies are in a race to get ahead of the demographic boom.

“Let us share without fear the journey of migrants and refugees.” Pope Francis (@Pontifex) tweet on 27 September 2017.

While some people in the United States are sweating the presence, against the backdrop of a demographically stagnant white population, of the 11 million undocumented immigrants or of the 30+ million other foreign-born residents, there are far bigger numbers brewing in other parts of the world, numbers that are so large that they could affect, decades from now, the life of an American citizen far more than would the rare determined Mexican or Guatemalan who manages henceforth to scale President Trump’s purportedly impenetrable border wall.

In the next decades as was so often the case in history, the future shape of the world could once again be decided in Europe and by Europe’s and the West’s handling of Africa’s incipient demographic boom.

In fact, if you are a generous-minded European who shares the Pope’s noble sentiment and who views the ongoing wave of migrants coming into your country as a benign and positive development; or, if you believe that borders are outdated constructs and that all refugees and other immigrants should be welcomed into the rich world; indeed, if it is your view that anyone who stands in the way of this openness is misguided by racist and nefarious motives, then it behooves you to test the strength of your belief by examining the larger demographic data coming out of Africa and Asia. Read more →

A Different Kind of Border Wall

To slow mass migration, stop the illicit capital flight from poor to rich countries.

An asset manager called ____ Capital recently sent out this email seeking referrals:

The US Investor visa program allows one to invest $500,000 U.S. in a government licensed fund for a period of about five years and in around 18 months, a conditional green card is attained for the investor and their immediate family. The investor and their family can live, work and study anywhere in the United States and there are no educational, age or English language requirements.

Most experts report that on September 30th the investment amount will increase from $500k to $1.3m, a significant jump that will price out many potential investors.

There is still time to file before September 30th if you start your process with ____ Capital now.

Others can comment on the practice of selling green cards (and ultimately US citizenships) to wealthy foreigners while millions of other applicants, some of whom would be greater contributors to the United States, continue to wait in line for years. Our concern is one step removed and has to do with the legality of this money. Read more →