Future Hubs of Africa and Asia

On UN projections between 2015 and 2050, the world population will grow by nearly 2.38 billion people, from 7.35 billion to 9.73 billion. Although this 32% growth is a big increase, it marks a slowdown from the 66% growth rate recorded in the preceding 35 years (1980-2015). Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) have come down all over the world and are expected to continue falling.
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About half of the 2.38 billion increase will take place in sub-Saharan Africa and nearly 40% in Asia. India is the biggest contributor with a net addition of 394 million, followed by Nigeria (216m), Pakistan (120m), DR Congo (118m) and Ethiopia (89m). By 2050, all of these countries will feature in the top 10 populations by size, a list that will include the United States (expected to rank fourth) but not one European country. Outside of Africa and Asia ex-China, regional populations will be growing slowly (the Americas), stagnating (China, Europe), or receding (Japan, Eastern Europe). Read more

A Different Kind of Border Wall

To slow mass migration, stop the illicit capital flight from poor to rich countries.

An asset manager called ____ Capital recently sent out this email seeking referrals:

The US Investor visa program allows one to invest $500,000 U.S. in a government licensed fund for a period of about five years and in around 18 months, a conditional green card is attained for the investor and their immediate family. The investor and their family can live, work and study anywhere in the United States and there are no educational, age or English language requirements.

Most experts report that on September 30th the investment amount will increase from $500k to $1.3m, a significant jump that will price out many potential investors.

There is still time to file before September 30th if you start your process with ____ Capital now.

Others can comment on the practice of selling green cards (and ultimately US citizenships) to wealthy foreigners while millions of other applicants, some of whom would be greater contributors to the United States, continue to wait in line for years. Our concern is one step removed and has to do with the legality of this money. Read more

How Many People Will Live in Africa in 2050 and 2100?

Large declines in fertility will depend on raising female literacy above 80%.

Every few years, the United Nations Population Division releases demographic projections for the entire world and for every country, region and continent. Although the UN’s database is the most used source on demographics, the data is not equally reliable for all countries.

Countries in the developed world conduct regular censuses and produce detailed numbers that are considered reliable. Less developed countries conduct censuses on an irregular basis or are completely unable to conduct them and have instead to rely on demographic sampling. In the poorest countries of the world, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa, censuses are infrequent or nonexistent and even sampling can be irregular and unreliable. Read more

FT: China’s Working-Age Population Is Shrinking

JOHN MORGAN writes in MONEYNEWS:

China’s working-age population actually declined in 2012, a trend that concerns the government and that could have a serious longer-term impact on the world’s second largest economy, according to the Financial Times.

China’s population aged 15 to 59 was estimated at 937.27 million at the end of December — a drop of 3.45 million from 2011.

Ma Jiantang, head of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, called the drop “worrying.”

While the decline was less than 1 percent, it reversed a long history of growth, thus is being treated as profound for the nation, the Times reported.

“In 2012 for the first time we saw a drop in the population of people of working age. … We should pay great attention to this fact,” Ma said.

READ MORE.

NIC: Global Trends 2030

The US NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL released a study GLOBAL TRENDS 2030: ALTERNATIVE WORLDS.  The talking points about demographics are as follows:

Rapid extensions of life expectancy likely: global deaths from communicable diseases projected to drop by more than 40 percent.

Some countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, will still have youthful populations, but demographic arc of instability will narrow on both east and west flanks.

“Aging” countries face the possibility of decline in economic growth. Increased migration will spread to emerging powers.

Urbanization set to grow to almost 60 percent.

Starting at page 20 of the FULL REPORT is Megatrend 3: Demographic Patterns.

On page 24 is a table on the ‘Demographic Window of Opportunity’ for various countries.

UNFPA State of World Population 2012

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) released a report today, State of World Population 2012: By Choice, Not by Chance, in which it calls family planning a human right:

“Family planning is a human right. Yet today some 222 million women in developing countries are unable to exercise that right because they lack access to contraceptives, information and quality services or because social and economic forces prevent them from taking advantage of services even where they are available.”

“The State of World Population 2012 explains why family planning is a right, examines the challenges in ensuring that all women, men and young people are able to exercise that right and suggests actions that governments and international organizations can take to give everyone the power and the means to decide freely and responsibly how many children to have and when to have them.”

Executive Summary:

The ability to decide on the number and spacing of one’s children is taken for granted by many in the developed world and among elites in developing countries. Yet, for a majority of people in developing countries, especially the poorest ones, the power and means to determine the size of their families are scarce or inadequate. An estimated 222 million women lack access to reliable, high-quality family planning services, information and supplies, putting them at risk of unintended pregnancy. In developed countries too, high levels of unintended pregnancy exist, especially among adolescents, the poor and ethnic minorities.

The huge unmet need for family planning persists, despite international agreements and human rights treaties that promote individuals’ rights to make their own decisions about when and how often to have children.

Today, family planning is almost universally recognized as an intrinsic right, affirmed and upheld by many other human rights. Because it is a right, voluntary family planning should be available to all, not just the wealthy or otherwise privileged. READ MORE OR READ FULL REPORT.