Category: Asia

Sri Lanka: Population 22 million by 2041

Editors

FROM SRI LANKA’S DAILY NEWS:

The Sri Lanka Human Rights Commission yesterday said that Sri Lanka’s population would increase moderately by about nine percent from 20 million to 22 million during the period from 2010-2041.

The Commission said that the elderly population will also increase from 2.5 million in 2010 to 5.3 million in 2041, an increase of over 100 percent or a doubling of the elderly population.

The Commission said that it has taken an initiative to organize a process of consultations to draw up draft input to the UN Open Ended Working Group as it would be a massive issue for the country in the years to come.

The UN Open Ended Working Group is working on a proposed Elders’ Convention. The Commission organized regional level consultation with the multiple stakeholders through its regional offices which have been already completed. READ MORE.

China: $8 Trillion for Urbanization

Editors

PALASH R. GHOSH writes in the INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TIMES:

China needs to Spend Almost $8 Trillion to Cope with Massive Migration of Rural Peoples Into Cities.

China needs to spend £5 trillion ($7.8 trillion) over the next two decades as an additional 200 million people are expected to move into the urban centers of the country, a new government report warned.

There are already up to 300 million migrant workers who have taken up residence (often illegally) in China’s metropolises. Many of these arrivals live in substandard housing and toil at low-paying, menial jobs.

The report, entitled “Blue Book of Cities in China” and released by the Chinese Academy of Social Science’s Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies, underlines the massive problems China faces as its population rapidly urbanizes. READ MORE.

Pakistan’s Looming Water Crisis

Editors

NATE BERG WRITES IN THE ATLANTIC CITIES:

Between 2011 and 2012, the urban population of Pakistan grew by more than 2.2 million people. The country’s urban residents now make up 38 percent of its total population of about 180 million. Much of this urban growth, according to an official at Pakistan’s Bureau of Statistics, is a result of rural-to-urban migration. Islamabad, for example, has seen its population grow rapidly from 800,000 in 1998 to more than 2 million today. Current estimates predict the country will shift to a majority urban population within 20 years.

Pakistan’s urbanization story is by no means unique, but it raises significant questions about its future. Sheer population growth has occurred at a swift pace. According to figures from the United Nations, Pakistan’s total population sees a net increase of more than 3.3 million people per year. As more of this growth occurs in urban areas, the country’s stressed infrastructure and public services will be put to the test. READ MORE.

Japan Population Falls for Third Year; Pace Increases

Editors

FROM THE JAPAN TIMES:

Japan’s population fell by 263,727, or 0.21 percent, from a year earlier to 126,659,683 as of March 31, marking the largest annual drop and a fall for the third consecutive year, the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry said Tuesday.

The previous record drop — 134,450 — was last year.

The number of births — 1,049,553, — was the lowest since the survey began in 1968, while the number of deaths hit a record high of 1,256,125. READ MORE.

Hong Kong: New Aging Figures Underscore Need for Action

Editors

JOSEPH LI writes in CHINA DAILY:

The population of Hong Kong will grow to 8.47 million over the next 30 years, according to a projection of the Census and Statistics Department.

At the same time, the aging of population will persist, with the percentage of senior citizens aged 65 and above rising from 13 percent in 2011 to 30 percent in 2041. The dependency ratio (ie, those “under 15” and those “65 and over” for every 1,000 persons aged 15 – 64) will also grow significantly, pushing the median age up to 49.9 years in 2041.

As to the sex ratio, there will be 712 men for every 1,000 women in 2041, continuing a trend of “surplus women” in the population. After foreign domestic helpers are excluded, the ratio will be 786 men to 1,000 women.

Wong Hung, assistant professor at the social work faculty of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, says the greying of the population will continue as a result of a low fertility rate and a low death rate. READ MORE.

AP: Iran Urges Baby Boom

Editors

NASSER KARIMI writes at the ASSOCIATED PRESS:

Iran’s new message to parents: Get busy and have babies.

In a major reversal of once far-reaching family planning policies, authorities are now slashing its birth-control programs in an attempt to avoid an aging demographic similar to many Western countries that are struggling to keep up with state medical and social security costs.

The changes — announced in Iranian media last week — came after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described the country’s wide-ranging contraceptive services as “wrong.” The independent Shargh newspaper quoted Mohammad Esmail Motlaq, a Health Ministry official, as saying family planning programs have been cut from the budget for the current Iranian year, which began in March.

It’s still unclear, however, whether the high-level appeals for bigger families will translate into a new population spike. Iran’s economy is stumbling under a combination of international sanctions, inflation and double-digit unemployment. Many young people, particularly in Tehran and other large cities, are postponing marriage or keeping their families small because of the uncertainties. READ MORE.

Irans’ Population Reaches 75 Million

Editors

An article in the TEHRAN TIMES says that Iran’s population has reached 75 million.  Per UN estimates, Iran has one of the lowest fertility ratios in the world, 1.59 children per woman.

Article begins here:

TEHRAN – According to the final results of the 2011 National Population and Housing Census of Iran, the country’s population has reached 75,149,669 people, the director of the Statistical Center of Iran said on Tuesday.

According to the census data, men constitute 50.4 percent of the country’s population, and women account for 49.6 percent, Adel Azar told reporters.

He added that rural population constitutes 28.5 percent of the total population of the country, and urban population accounts for 71.4 percent. READ MORE.

LA Times: Beyond 7 Billion

Editors

KENNETH R. WEISS at THE LOS ANGELES TIMES explores the Population Boom in a five-part series:

After remaining stable for most of human history, the world’s population has exploded over the last two centuries. The boom is not over: The biggest generation in history is just entering its childbearing years. The coming wave will reshape the planet, and the impact will be greatest in the poorest, most unstable countries.

Part 1: The biggest generation

CFR: China’s Population Policy—An Exchange Between Edwin Winckler and Yanzhong Huang

Editors

FROM THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS:

Dr. Yanzhong Huang is Senior Fellow for Global Health and the newest writer for Asia Unbound. His first post, “Time for China to Abandon Its Population Control Policy,” attracted significant attention, including a thoughtful response from Edwin A. Winckler, a Senior Research Scholar at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University. Here we have posted both Dr. Winckler’s commentary and a new response from Dr. Huang. We hope you enjoy their discussion.

Elizabeth Economy, C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies

Time for China to ADJUST Its Reproductive Policies By Edwin A. Winckler

As someone who in the early 2000s actively researched PRC birth planning, I found the recent post by the fine scholar Professor Yanzhong Huang a little disappointing. Relative to my experience and research, his main points are basically correct, but imprecise in some details, in ways that obscure important potential lessons, not only about PRC population policy in particular but also about PRC governance in general. Probably in many cases Professor Huang knows better and would be more precise in a longer presentation. However, as presented, his post misses an opportunity to correct what I consider misunderstandings of current PRC birth policy that repeatedly arise in media reporting and American discussion. Moreover, he flatly asserts interpretations that deserve further research as questions, not apparently settled conclusions. This post raises some of those questions. (I personally am no longer actively researching PRC birth policy, but I did discuss some of these issues with various kinds of PRC scholars during a June 2012 visit to Beijing .) READ MORE.

China: Structural Imbalances in Population

Editors

MU GUANGZONG, a professor of demography at Peking University, writes in the China Daily that a decline in the country’s birth rate “may lead to a structural collapse of the population” and that “taking care of the elderly has become an unbearable pressure for some young adults.”

Guangzong’s article begins here:

The nation’s low birthrate is an increasingly severe problem that will accelerate the aging of the population, increase the pension shortfall, and aggravate the gender imbalance.

According to statistics from the Sixth National Census released in April 2011, the country’s birthrate in the past decade has become one of the lowest in the world.

In 1979, youngsters under the age of 14 accounted for one-third of the total population, but by 2010, they accounted for less than 16.6 percent. The family planning authorities are worried about a baby boom if they relax the family planning policy. However, a no-birth culture has become popular among young people of marriageable age who were born in the 1980s and 1990s.

According to a survey conducted by the Beijing municipal institute of population research in 2006, 64.1 percent of the 248 young couples surveyed who would have been allowed a second child, as both the husband and the wife were an only child, expressed unwillingness to do so. One reason for young couples not wanting a second child or wanting to be DINKs – double income, no kids – is the skyrocketing cost of raising children. In addition, the intensified competition in China’s job market has already forced many young couples to put their careers first and postpone their plans to have their first child, let alone having a second one.

Worryingly, if this trend continues it may lead to a structural collapse of the population. According to the human resources white paper issued by the government in 2010, by 2035 China will face the situation where two taxpayers will be supporting one pensioner, while the number of taxpayers will be shrinking. Meanwhile, the decreasing supply of qualified labor will put a drag on the pace of economic development.

Since 2003, a growing labor shortage has spread from the southeast coastal areas across the country, suggesting the transfer of the rural labor force has passed the Lewis Turning Point and China has already lost its demographic dividend. The recent census indicates that the working-age population will begin to decrease between 2013 and 2015, and in the next 10 years the population aged between 20 and 40 may decrease by as much as 100 million. The slowing down of population growth and even a decrease in the population will cause domestic demand to atrophy and economic development will lose an important driving force. Even an immediate loosening of the family planning policy may not be that helpful in the short run, given the time it takes a new-born child to reach working age. READ MORE.