Japan Times: Population of Tokyo to Drop by Half by 2100

Population forecasts are notoriously difficult and nonlinear. Nonetheless, Japan has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world and the Japan Times makes this dire projection today:


2100 will see Tokyo’s population standing at around 7.13 million — about half of what it is today — with 45.9 percent of those in the metropolis aged 65 or over, a group of academics and bureaucrats has concluded.

Tokyo’s population, which stood at 13.16 million in 2010, will peak at 13.35 million in 2020 before dropping by 45.8 percent from the 2010 census figure 88 years from now, the group, including seven academics and 10 metro government and municipal bureaucrats, said Sunday.

This means the 2100 population will be resemble that of 1940’s Japan, before the attack on Pearl Harbor.

“The number of people in their most productive years will decline, while local governments will face severe financial strains,” the group said in a statement. “So it will be crucial to take measures to turn around the falling birthrate and enhance social security measures for the elderly.”


Michigan is Losing Population Ground — Naturally

Detroit face unique demographic challenges and Michigan was the only state to show a net population decline in the decade ending in 2010.


In the period from 2000 through 2010, amid the economic upheaval that shook Michigan to its foundations, people in the state were remarkably consistent at one thing: dying.

Annual deaths for that 11-year period averaged 86,746 — with a range of just several thousand year to year in a state of about 10 million people. Meantime, births were declining almost every year over that same span, from 136,048 in 2000 down to 114,717 by 2010.

The result, according to a new analysis by Data Driven Detroit, was a 47% drop in Michigan’s natural population change from 2000-10. In 2000, births exceeded deaths by 49,060; by 2010, the margin was just 26,659. READ MORE.

Detroit’s aging population on collision course with nursing home shortage

The population of Detroit fell by 25% in the decade to 2010, an unprecedented development for a large American city which has created new challenges for its remaining residents.  ROCHELLE RILEY writes in the Detroit Free Press:

Marylyn Thurmond had been a registered nurse at Detroit Receiving Hospital for 13 years when she was diagnosed with arthritis. She has had both hips replaced. Six weeks ago, she was diagnosed with lupus. She also suffers from hypertension, diabetes and coronary heart failure.

Marylyn Thurmond is 57 years old.

Novella Walker-Page was a registered nurse at Hutzel Hospital in high-risk labor and delivery for 26 years before becoming a home care nurse and then a contract nurse for the Detroit Public Schools. One day, she fell from the bus that took her around for student care. During that same doctor’s visit, she learned that she had sarcoidosis, an inflammatory disease. She also suffers from hypertension, high cholesterol and atopic dermatitis, a skin condition.

Walker-Page, who cares for her 95-year-old mother at her northwest Detroit home, is 60. She doesn’t think she’ll live as long as her mother or her grandmother, who died at 116.

Thurmond and Walker-Page are among a fast-growing part of Detroit’s population — the new elderly, people who are 50-59 years old but more like 60-74 in terms of their health. Neither, for now, wants or needs nursing home care. But as that need is growing among their age group, their chances of finding it are in decline. READ MORE.