Demography & Health

  • Wednesday Briefs – 22 July 2020
    A weekly commentary on current events. Follow populyst to receive notification. This week: US coronavirus deaths; Out of China and into Africa?; Tesla rocket. Please contact us for data or other information concerning the views below. US coronavirus deaths US deaths from Covid-19 are rising with a three week lag after confirmed cases. After bottoming … Read more Wednesday Briefs – 22 July 2020
  • Wednesday Briefs – 15 July 2020
    A weekly commentary on current events. Follow populyst to receive notification. This week: Demographic megatrends; Coronavirus in New York and Florida; Vice-Presidential scenarios. Please contact us for data or other information concerning the views below. Demographic megatrends This site started as a platform to analyze global demographic changes before closer to home issues assumed a … Read more Wednesday Briefs – 15 July 2020
  • Wednesday Briefs – 8 July 2020
    A weekly commentary on current events. Follow populyst to receive notification. This week: Leaving New York City; 1999 market redux; Election 2020. Please contact us for data or other information concerning the views below. Leaving New York City Trends that began in the recent past because of the pandemic may not endure beyond the pandemic. … Read more Wednesday Briefs – 8 July 2020
  • Wednesday Briefs – 20 May 2020
    A weekly commentary on current events. Follow populyst to receive notification. This week: Milestones in the re-opening; Russia, Brazil; United States deaths; Bearish billionaires. Please contact us for data or other information concerning the views below. Milestones in the re-opening Every country, state or locality has set itself some milestones before it lifts its lockdown … Read more Wednesday Briefs – 20 May 2020
  • Wednesday Briefs – 13 May 2020
    A weekly commentary on current events. Follow populyst to receive notification. This week: High growth companies; Coronavirus – United States outside New York; Coronavirus – BRIC countries. Please contact us for data or other information concerning the views below. High growth companies As long as there is no shortage of liquidity in the market, growing … Read more Wednesday Briefs – 13 May 2020
  • On the Seasonality of the Virus
    What are the odds that the coronavirus will recede on its own during the spring because of warmer temperatures or a higher ultraviolet (UV) index? This has been a question from the beginning. There has been some research in support of the idea that the warmer season would force the virus to retreat. And there … Read more On the Seasonality of the Virus
  • A Few Certainties About Covid-19
    There is plenty that we do not know about the coronavirus. But let us take stock of the things that we do know for sure, and of some other things that we will soon know. Real-world Exponentiality By now, a child understands exponential growth. If you start with one apple on March 1st and double every … Read more A Few Certainties About Covid-19
  • The Pandemic as a ‘Gray Rhino’ Event, with Michele Wucker
    “The paradox of the Gray Rhinos is that the further they are down the road, the less likely you are to do something about them. But that is the time when it will cost the least and you are most likely to be successful.” ____ Michele Wucker Sami J. Karam speaks to best-selling author Michele Wucker about … Read more The Pandemic as a ‘Gray Rhino’ Event, with Michele Wucker
  • 2020 Election: Democrats Heading to a Brokered Convention?
    An occasional commentary on the 2020 US Presidential Election in which demographics and identity politics play a bigger role than ever before. Here, we explain why primary and convention rules make it difficult for a frontrunner to emerge in a crowded field. Today, President’s Day, is as good as any to draw some lessons from … Read more 2020 Election: Democrats Heading to a Brokered Convention?
  • De-Politicizing Climate Activism
    Or how Greta Thunberg can create more converts. “Nature is not a temple. It is a workshop, and a human being is the worker in it.”                               _                           … Read more De-Politicizing Climate Activism
  • Talking About Cities, with Aaron Renn
    “You go to some of these places [Midwestern cities], the question they ask when they meet you is ‘where did you go to high school’?… The fact that where you went to high school is a social marker places you in a community. You go to Washington DC and nobody cares where you went to … Read more Talking About Cities, with Aaron Renn
  • Fertility and Literacy in India’s States
    Higher female literacy is a reliable predictor of lower fertility and improved prosperity. In a previous article, we highlighted a clear connection in sub-Saharan Africa between a country’s total fertility rate (TFR = average number of children per woman) and its young female literacy rate. The data showed that higher literacy may set off a chain reaction … Read more Fertility and Literacy in India’s States
  • Future Hubs of Africa and Asia
    On UN projections between 2015 and 2050, the world population will grow by nearly 2.38 billion people, from 7.35 billion to 9.73 billion. Although this 32% growth is a big increase, it marks a slowdown from the 66% growth rate recorded in the preceding 35 years (1980-2015). Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) have come down all … Read more Future Hubs of Africa and Asia
  • Notes from the Wharton Africa Business Forum
    The Wharton Africa Business Forum took place in Philadelphia on November 3-5, 2017. Present were the Finance Minister of Nigeria, the CEO of Ethiopian Airlines and other business leaders (notably from lead sponsors McKinsey & Company and the Boston Consulting Group) and educators. The event was attended by hundreds of participants including Wharton faculty, students … Read more Notes from the Wharton Africa Business Forum
  • Africa: 800 Million Jobs Needed
    African economies are in a race to get ahead of the demographic boom. Let us share without fear the journey of migrants and refugees. #ShareJourney — Pope Francis (@Pontifex) September 27, 2017 “Let us share without fear the journey of migrants and refugees.” Pope Francis (@Pontifex) tweet on 27 September 2017. While some people in … Read more Africa: 800 Million Jobs Needed
  • A Different Kind of Border Wall
    To slow mass migration, stop the illicit capital flight from poor to rich countries. An asset manager called ____ Capital recently sent out this email seeking referrals: The US Investor visa program allows one to invest $500,000 U.S. in a government licensed fund for a period of about five years and in around 18 months, a … Read more A Different Kind of Border Wall
  • New Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa
    This post will be continuously updated as we learn about new projects. Go to the bottom of the page for new entries. On the three main vectors of wealth creation, African countries have lagged other developing nations for several decades. Sub-Saharan Africa is the poorest region of the world and suffers from poor infrastructure, uneven … Read more New Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Father of the Bernie Sanders Presidency
    President Trump’s elite-managed populism opens a path for a more genuine version. On the usual political spectrum, there are left and right, people who call themselves progressive or conservative, socialist/social democrat or capitalist. But these labels seem to mean less today than in the past. The Trump phenomenon highlighted another divide that has little to do with the historic … Read more Father of the Bernie Sanders Presidency
  • The Economics of Dependency
    This article first appeared at Foreign Affairs. How countries hit the demographic sweet spot. Demographics are among the most important influences on a country’s overall economic performance, but compared with other contributors, such as the quality of governance or institutions, their impact is underappreciated. Demographic factors, such as the age structure of a population, can determine whether a … Read more The Economics of Dependency
  • Trump Country: Where the Immigrants Aren’t
    Trump did best in the states with the lowest percentages of foreign-born residents. “I love the poorly-educated”, gushed Donald Trump after winning the Nevada primary in February. But in the end, what happened in the primary, stayed in the primary. Come November, Trump lost the state to Hillary Clinton, a turn that is explained by the fact … Read more Trump Country: Where the Immigrants Aren’t