Wednesday Briefs – 14 April 2021

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THIS WEEK: Most People are Very Smart; Back to the Border; Podcast: Lebanon in Crisis.

Most People are Very Smart

A sociologist whose name we cannot recall once wrote that “most people are very good drivers”. This seemed like an unusual and provocative statement since the opposite view is widely held. To be sure, most Americans see themselves as very good drivers but they also see others as bad drivers. In a survey by Allstate Insurance, 64% of Americans rated themselves as “excellent” or “very good” drivers, and rated only 22% of other drivers as excellent or very good.

Commentators of the survey have dwelled on the notion that the survey respondents are overconfident and essentially mistaken about their own driving ability. To deflate this self-confidence, it was pointed out that 89% have driven over the speed limit; 45% have driven while excessively tired and 15% while intoxicated; 34% have texted while driving. While these are bad and potentially dangerous habits, they do not on their own prove that the miscreants are bad drivers. In fact, if we define bad driving as “being in an accident or causing an accident”, the low incidence of accidents relative to these percentages would bolster the notion that most people are in fact very good drivers. Their superior driving skills got them safely to their destinations in spite of their bad habits.

In the same vein, most people rate themselves as intelligent or very intelligent and rate others less favorably. And here again, it is possible that they are right about themselves and wrong about others, instead of the opposite. The view that people are in general stupid is very widespread; so widespread in fact that numerous books have been written about human stupidity. This harsh judgment is probably wrong however. It is more likely that humans are in general very smart but not in the same way.

This is not the same as saying that everyone should get an A in math. It continues to be true that only some people (say 10 to 15%) are very good at math and an even smaller percentage (less than 1%) are truly excellent. But other people are smart at other things that may not be as prized by society at the moment. Only very few are smart in the way of say Albert Einstein or Bill Gates. But opportunities in every avenue will appear limitless if we consider that most people are very smart, and that most are smart in ways that we do not immediately understand.

There is comfort in believing that other people are stupid. See for example how people reflexively call each other stupid over the most minor political disagreement. Sinclair Lewis wrote in It Can’t Happen Here “every man is a king so long as he has someone to look down on”. But every man is not a king and this comfort is delusional, naive and counter-productive.

Back to the Border

In the Wednesday Briefs – 20 January 2021, we suggested that a more complex foreign policy would return with the new administration. President Trump’s foreign policy had been unconventional but straightforward in its broad lines regarding China, North Korea, Russia, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, ISIS and others. The last three months confirm a change of tack and a return of complexity.

Parenthetically, a more complex or more nuanced approach is often desirable in other endeavors, but not necessarily in foreign policy. A straight and simple message is sometimes preferable when international relations are fraught with misunderstandings across language and cultural barriers. A sensationalist media can also exacerbate these misunderstandings. Whatever the case, we seem to be back to the future, or at least to the pre-Trump approach.

Russia is a renewed concern due to the imprisonment of Alexei Navalny and his deteriorating health, and due to the massing of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border. North Korea is launching missiles again. Iran and the US are resuming talks about Iran’s nuclear program but Iran is enriching uranium again. China is raising its voice on Taiwan and other issues. Myanmar had a miltary coup. Europe is generally pleased with the departure of Donald Trump and America’s renewed involvement in climate talks. Central America is again sending its children to the US border. Africa is getting insufficient attention as always, despite its rapidly growing population.

When the pandemic lifts, we are likely to see this renewed complexity morph into one or two challenges overseas. It is possible that the worldwide lockdown contained potential crises and that this pent-up energy will be released when the virus subsides.

Lebanon in Crisis

Last Sunday, we published a podcast with the Beirut-based financier Joe Issa El Khoury. Lebanon’s most recent troubles started in 2019 with a perfect storm, part economic, part financial, part political. But this storm was then compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic and the explosion in the port of Beirut in 2020.

Issa El Khoury explains the sequence of events that led to the present, and offers a possible way forward.

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