“The paradox of the Gray Rhinos is that the further they are down the road, the less likely you are to do something about them. But that is the time when it will cost the least and you are most likely to be successful.” ____ Michele Wucker
Sami J. Karam speaks to best-selling author Michele Wucker about her 2016 book The Gray Rhino and how its method and lessons apply to the coronavirus pandemic. Gray Rhino threats are highly probable, highly impactful but often neglected until it is too late or until the cost of dealing with them becomes very high.
- 0:00 Introduction of Michele Wucker
- 1:05 When will we be able to travel to Asia or Europe again?
- 3:10 Explaining the concept and examples of Gray Rhino events
- 9:00 Various reactions to the spread of the pandemic
- 15:50 Was the virus predictable?
- 19:20 Why should we have been readier for the virus when it is so rare?
- 22:00 Why we ignore what is “over there”. Did it start “over there” or over here?
- 25:35 How could we have prepared for the pandemic?
- 31:00 The current catch-22: deaths by virus vs. deaths of despair
- 44:10 Stages of a Gray Rhino event applied to the pandemic
- 50:10 What other Gray Rhino events do you worry about? A triad of Gray Rhinos
- 55:45 How alarmists help avert deep crises
- 59:40 Conclusion
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(photo of Michele Wucker by Hal Shipman)