26 June 2013
GDP growth for the first quarter was only 1.8%, less than the expected 2.4%. Since the recession of 2009, the recovery has been anemic compared to previous ones. See table below. There are some features which differentiate the 2008-09 recession. Most notable among them was the crisis suffered by the major banks and their subsequent inability or reluctance to lend. Another factor in the current recovery, and in our view a more substantial one, is the poorer demographic picture in the US which has resulted in weaker demand growth.
| Number of quarters with n+ GDP growth | |||
| in the 15 quarters following recession of: | |||
| n —-> | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| 1991 | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| 2001 | 11 | 7 | 2 |
| 2009 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
31 July 2013 Update: GDP growth for Q1 was revised down again today to 1.1%, less than half the estimate from two months ago. The first estimate for Q2 is 1.7%.