The Candidates’ Other Demographic Challenge

It is massively larger than 11 million illegals.

Hans Rosling, co-founder of Gapminder, calls it “the biggest change of our time”. It is Africa’s population growth from 1 billion people today to 2.5 billion by 2050 and 4 billion by 2100.

You could say that a close “second biggest change of our time” is the aging and stagnation of the population in rich countries. The combined population of North America, Europe, Japan and Australia/New Zealand is now at 1.3 billion and it will remain at 1.3 billion by 2050 and 2100 with small gains in North America and Oceania offset by declines in Europe and Japan. Continue reading

Posted in 2016 Candidates, Africa, Demographics, Dependency Ratio, Economy, Emerging Markets, Europe, Immigration, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Politics, Poverty, Russia, United States, US Economy | Leave a comment

UN Population Prospects: 2015 vs. 2010

The 2015 Revision of the UN’s World Population Prospects estimates a global 2050 population of 9.7 billion people. That is 420 million more than the UN had estimated as recently as 2010. The incremental rise comes from higher estimates for all continents, especially Africa which goes from 2.2 billion to 2.5 billion. Continue reading

Posted in Africa, Demographics, Europe, United Nations | Leave a comment

New populyst Website

populyst is evolving into more than a blog. In line with this evolution, we rolled out the new populyst index website. Please visit the site at http://www.populystindex.com and sign up as a member for free access. Continue reading

Posted in Economy | Leave a comment

Demography, the Global Emergency

It is not an exaggeration to say that world demography is entering uncharted territory. For the first time in a very long time, perhaps the first time ever, the dependency ratios (loosely, the ratio of dependents to workers) of all rich nations and of several emerging markets have started rising and will continue to rise for several decades.

This alone would be enough of a challenge for the world economy. But making things more complicated, it is taking place at the same time as the other big demographic transition of our age, the great population boom in some of the poorest nations of the world. Continue reading

Posted in Africa, Analysis and Opinion, Bangladesh, Demographics, Dependency Ratio, Economy, Emerging Markets, Europe, European Union, Germany, Immigration, India, Nigeria, Philippines, Sami Karam, Sub-Saharan | Leave a comment

Does Private Equity Really Work in Emerging Markets? (2 of 2)

by Justin Harlow

In Part 1 of this series, we discussed how private equity firms can adapt their business models to enhance their investment activities in the emerging markets. In this final Part 2, we explore the role that local companies can play in increasing the flow of private equity capital to these markets. Continue reading

Posted in Emerging Markets, Investment, Private Equity, Venture Capital | Leave a comment

Does Private Equity Really Work in Emerging Markets? (1 of 2)

by Justin Harlow

In this Part 1 of 2, we look at the principal obstacles to private equity investments in the emerging markets and examine how PE firms can improve the situation. Part 2 of 2 will explore the role local companies can play in enhancing opportunities for private equity investors in these markets. Continue reading

Posted in Emerging Markets, Investment, Private Equity, Venture Capital | Leave a comment

On Greece Demographics

Of all major regions of the world, Europe has the most challenging demographics, combining a stagnant population and a rising dependency ratio. But within Europe, five countries have worse demographics than the European average: Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece. Continue reading

Posted in Analysis and Opinion, Demographics, Dependency Ratio, Europe, European Union, Greece | Leave a comment

US GDP: Is 4% Growth Achievable?

The Wall Street Journal and The Financial Times say no.

While announcing his presidential campaign Monday, Jeb Bush said:

There is not a reason in the world why we cannot grow at a rate of 4% a year. And that will be my goal as president—4% growth, and the 19 million new jobs that come with it.

As a cruising speed, 4%+ GDP growth is achievable but only under very favorable conditions. Continue reading

Posted in 2016 Candidates, Analysis and Opinion, Demographics, Dependency Ratio, Economy, Immigration, Sami Karam, United States, US Economy | Leave a comment

The Lottery of Birth Place and Time

“When I attempt to find a simple formula for the period in which I grew up, prior to the First World War, I hope that I convey its fullness by calling it the Golden Age of Security.”

Thus begins the autobiography The World of Yesterday in which the Austrian author Stefan Zweig, born in 1881, recounts his early life in Vienna at the height of the Belle Époque. It was a time of high culture, of prosperity, and of people who believed that war was forever relegated to the past. Then came the shock of WW1, the breakup of the Austro-Hungarian empire, the difficult inter-war period, Zweig’s own forced exile, the horrors of WW2, and finally death. Zweig and his wife committed suicide in Brazil, far from Vienna and very far from the Belle Époque, in early 1942 at a time when the Nazis still looked unbeatable. Continue reading

Posted in Demographics, Dependency Ratio, Economy, United States, US Economy | Leave a comment

FT: China Faces End of ‘Migrant Miracle’

The Financial Times describes China’s changing demographics in this new video. Two important changes are a reversal in the dependency ratio (previously discussed here on this site) and a slowdown or end to the ‘migrant miracle’.

Posted in China, Demographics, Dependency Ratio, Urbanization | Leave a comment